My Maiden Post

My friends suggested that I should start writing blogs about cricket. Some, out of genuine belief in my so called passion for the game, and some out of not so benign intentions. One of them went so far that he created a blog page for me and also suggested what I should be writing on for a start. He said that I should ‘predict’ the chances of the teams winning the World Cup, as if it was the easiest and most logical thing to do!!! So with the intention of not disappointing him, I take his advice and set forth to write whatever balderdash my mind cares to churn out. After all in my beloved country, everybody is an ‘expert’ when it comes to cricket.

It is foolish to predict the outcome of any sport. Even ones that involve Roger Federer and Tiger Woods. But since the very purpose of this blog is to foresee the future, I will sit down to the task of doing so. I will, however, not be unrealistic enough to name THE team that emerges victorious from the tournament. Nobody can. Not in any sport. Definitely not in cricket. But I will name the teams which, according to me on current form and strength should make the final four.

This is probably the first world cup in which the 21-yard square has been talked about to such an extent.
With the first set of warm-up matches over, we have a fair indication of what we can expect from the West Indian pitches. Obviously, I am no expert but one Mr. Brian Charles Lara, expects them to be on the slower side. So I choose to go by whatever he says. Newly laid or not, expect them to play similar to how they did in the warm up games. Those 250ish strips, in which either you have to be a grafter of the ilk of a Dravid or a Kallis, or a blaster of the kind of a Symonds or a Dhoni to dominate the game.

In my view, this World Cup is going to be about specialist batsmen and slow/spin bowlers. Batsmen need to have patience, no hitting through the line, on the up, that is not going to work. On most of the pitches the ball is not going to come on to the bat well. Spinners are going to get some help from the pitch and slow bowlers are going to be difficult to get away with. So, which of the teams have resources that can match the requirement of the conditions?

India, probably never before in World Cups looked this good to reach the semis even before the start of the tournament. Rahul Dravid is going to play a crucial role if India has to reach the semis. The team is going to play around him. Probably he will end up scoring the most runs for India, if not in the whole tournament. Tendulkar likes to dominate bowlers, which he might not be able to do always in this tournament, especially against slow medium pacers. If he keeps his cool and doesn’t look to get on top by manufacturing shots, he will have another very successful campaign. India also has big-hitters coming down the line in Dhoni and possibly Sehwag. Although, I am not sure Sehwag has the temperament to keep his cool while chasing. He might be useful batting at 6 or7 in the first innings. India will have an edge over other teams in the bowling department. While Kumble and Harbhajan are proven performers, the part-time slow/spin bolwers in Sehwag, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Yuvraj will have a part to play. Ganguly should be bowled more in this tournament. He has lost a yard or two but can swing the ball, and is arguably a more disciplined seamer than Tendulkar. Batsmen are going to struggle getting him off the strip, provided he maintains decent line and length. Indian fielding will not be as bad as it has been projected to be. Let us wait and see. Good chances for India overall, but as we know, India can pull out loses from thin air.

Sri Lanka also looks a good unit. They have all the ingredients to last the distance. The main worry for them will be the form of Jayawardane, if he picks up the threads, the team will get the essential backbone. He will play the role of a Dravid for India or a Kallis for SA. Sangakara, Jayasuriya, Atapattu and Dilshan Tilakaratne make up an experienced batting line-up for Sri Lanka. Jayasuriya will have his task cut out as a bowler. He will have to bowl his full quota of 10 overs. Stump to stump, he will be difficult to get away, without the batsman taking risk. Sri Lanka would do well to have Malinga Bandara in the line-up. A bowler to watch for. Not many spinners have deceived Sachin Tendulkar in flight. Not even the man Bandara has modeled his bowling action on. Chaminda Vaas is a wily customer. He is going to trouble the batsmen with
economical bowling. Fielding was never an issue for the Lankans, so let us not waste time discussing that. Sri Lanka, with a few things tweaked here and there, look good enough to trouble the best.

West Indies has played some competitive cricket over the last year or so. Lara, Gayle, Marlon Samuels, Chanderpaul, Dwayne Bravo have all been among runs lately. Ramnaresh Sarwan has been a worry. But, he must be very keen to prove a point or two to the selectors. Bowling is the weaker link. WI doesn’t have a good spinner in the line-up. However, Gayle usually bowls a decent tight line and can fire in a surprise yorker or two, a la Afridi syle. Bradshaw and Bravo have very good slower deliveries which, as India found out in its last tour to the Caribbean, are very difficult to score off. But, Bradshaw’s form has not been so good of late. Collymore is also reasonably thrifty. A career economy of 4.31 in 77 ODIs is not bad, is it? Jerome Taylor is a useful bowler in my view. He should pick up a wicket or two in the initial stages to rattle the opposition. West Indies, in my view, is the most likely team to beat Australia before the semi-finals. Home advantage should give its batsmen and bowlers that extra edge.

This place is open to three teams in my view. Australia, South Africa and yes, England. No, don’t snigger yet. I will stick to my view of spinner playing a crucial role in this World Cup. Australia has Brad Hogg, who is restrictive at best, and South Africa has left behind Paul Harris, who might have been useful in these conditions. England scores over both of them in the spin department. Monty Panesar is not going to win England matches consistently. But he will certainly provide the breakthroughs at crucial times in the game.

Australia has one of the best batting line-ups in the tournament, if not the best. It does score over South Africa and England in this department. However, Ricky Ponting may just fail to come to terms with the low bounce on some of the pitches. Likes to pull a lot and drives fluently, which might not be possible in these pitches. His form will decide whether Australia progresses to the semi-finals or not. The law of averages has been trailing Ponting’s batting average for quite some time now. It is high time it caught up. Symonds holds the key. He is the much needed brawny batsman for Australia. He has the much needed power to score the boundaries on pitches where timing the ball is an issue. Moreover, he has the knack of picking up wickets with his medium pacers, which if he doesn’t play, will be sorely missed. Australia’s bowling is their weaker link. Not much experience in that, apart from McGrath. Hussey will be the backbone for the team. But he has this tendency to cut the ball on to his wickets on slow pitches. Australia will be largely banking on their excellent fielding and strong batting to carry them through to the semis.

South Africa’s batting will revolve around Kallis and Prince. I don’t see the rest contributing much. You will probably see Graeme Smith getting out LBW or trying to work the ball to the leg-side. Their batting in my view is the weakest among the three teams in question. A big negative for SA is the absence of a quality spinner. Pollock will be economical as usual but will that be enough? It probably will not be.

England, the big plus for them is two plodders in the middle order. Bell and Collingwood. Collingwood is a batsman in the Steve Waugh mould. Works hard for his runs, doesn’t look good while batting, exactly as Waugh did not. But, has the never-say-die attitude, which was the hallmark of Waugh. Bell also works for his singles and doubles and plays well within himself. Kevin Pietersen is going to struggle a bit. But he might turn a match on its head, if he applies himself. The issue with England is that it is the only team amongst the top eight that is playing a wicketkeeper, who is not a proven batsman. This team probably has all the ingredients, but in limited measures. One of the best all rounders in Flintoff, one of the best timers of the ball in Pietersen, one of the best captain in Vaughan, if he plays, a very good spinner in Panesar, and a workhorse in Paul Collingwood. With a bit of luck, they might spring a surprise.

A close call between Australia and England as far as I am concerned. But I will be a bit more adventurous and zero in on England to fill the last slot in the semi-final line-up. Going a bit overboard, I know, but that’s that.

New Zealand is average, both in their batting and bowling departments. No good specialist batsman to speak of except perhaps Fleming, who is not in form. Bowling depends heavily on Bond and Vettori. Bond’s pace might help the batsmen on these wickets anyway. Oram and McCullum are useful all rounders, but the team might not do anything to write home about.

Of course, we can never write-off Pakistan. But the problem with the team is that it has been distracted too much from the game. The team will miss Asif, for sure. And also Razzaq, more for his big-hitting and match finishing skills. A very good batting line-up, up there with the best, but arguably the worst bowling team out of the premier eight. Fielding is also an issue. They will need Imran Khan Niazi to come back from retirement to win the tournament. I suspect Inzi bhai is not inspirational enough to lead this team to its second success.

I will also spare some space for Bangladesh, not because they beat NZ in the warm-up game, but because they have some good talent coming up and probably will play in conditions similar at home. Slow and low wickets, aiding spin. Had they not been grouped with India and Sri Lanka, better players of spin bowling in the game, I would have backed them to spring a surprise.

I guess that is enough for my first blog. My benevolent and not so benevolent friends are waiting eagerly to read through my views. So I will not make them wait any longer.